2013-14 Rangers Scoring Forecasts: Centers

As we get closer to the season starting, and the Rangers’ roster is looking more and more like it’s set, I’m going to attempt to forecast their players’ scoring lines.

A word about my method: it’s largely mechanical, but I did leave some room for my thoughts to creep into the equation. The main factors I looked at were the player’s 2012-13 scoring rates, their age, their shooting percentage, and total on-ice shooting percentage.

Scoring Forecasts for Rangers 2013-14 Centers:

Player GP G A Pts Pts/GP
Derek Stepan 82 21 41 62 0.7561
Brad Richards 76 16 39 55 0.7237
Derick Brassard 75 14 37 51 0.6800
Brian Boyle 78 11 12 23 0.2949
Dominic Moore 69 7 15 22 0.3188
J.T. Miller 10 1 1 2 0.2000
Oscar Lindberg 4 0 0 0 0.0000
Totals 394 70 145 215

The total of 394 GP among the centers (4.8 per game) reflects the fact that I expect a few of them to get many reps on the wing this season.

I don’t expect Stepan to repeat his scoring rate from 2012-13 (0.9167 Pts/GP), as his shooting percentage (16.7%) and on-ice shooting percentage (9.6%) were significantly higher than in his first two seasons in the league. I would expect him to continue to build on his 2011-12 campaign (0.6220 Pts/GP).

While I don’t forecast a big jump in Brad Richards’ numbers this season, I do anticipate much stronger overall play from the center. I expect his powerplay production to rebound in a big way, while he likely won’t score at the even-strength pace he did last season.

While I think it would be ambitious to forecast Brassard to keep up his manic, post-trade scoring pace (0.9200 Pts/GP), I do have him scoring at his highest points-per-game rate since his 31-game rookie season.

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