As we get closer to the season starting, and the Rangers’ roster is looking more and more like it’s set, I’m going to attempt to forecast their players’ scoring lines.
A word about my method: it’s largely mechanical, but I did leave some room for my thoughts to creep into the equation. The main factors I looked at were the player’s 2012-13 scoring rates, their age, their shooting percentage, and total on-ice shooting percentage.
Scoring Forecasts for Rangers 2013-14 Centers:
The total of 394 GP among the centers (4.8 per game) reflects the fact that I expect a few of them to get many reps on the wing this season.
I don’t expect Stepan to repeat his scoring rate from 2012-13 (0.9167 Pts/GP), as his shooting percentage (16.7%) and on-ice shooting percentage (9.6%) were significantly higher than in his first two seasons in the league. I would expect him to continue to build on his 2011-12 campaign (0.6220 Pts/GP).
While I don’t forecast a big jump in Brad Richards’ numbers this season, I do anticipate much stronger overall play from the center. I expect his powerplay production to rebound in a big way, while he likely won’t score at the even-strength pace he did last season.
While I think it would be ambitious to forecast Brassard to keep up his manic, post-trade scoring pace (0.9200 Pts/GP), I do have him scoring at his highest points-per-game rate since his 31-game rookie season.